1. **State the problem:** We are given data of total personal income in the US from 1960 to 2024 and asked to model it with an exponential function of the form $$y = a(1+r)^x$$ where $x$ is years past 1960 and $y$ is income in billions.
2. **Write the exponential model:** From the problem, the model is given as $$y = 411.500(1.074)^x$$ where $a=411.500$ is the income in 1960 and $r=0.074$ is the growth rate.
3. **Check the model for 2018:** For 2018, $x=2018-1960=58$. Calculate the model's prediction:
$$y = 411.500(1.074)^{58}$$
4. **Calculate the value:**
$$y = 411.500 \times (1.074)^{58}$$
Using a calculator, $(1.074)^{58} \approx 46.45$, so
$$y \approx 411.500 \times 46.45 = 19,120.175$$
5. **Compare with actual 2018 income:** Actual income is 19,129.6 billion, model predicts 19,120.175 billion, so the model slightly underestimates the income.
6. **Find the year income reaches 68 trillion:** We want to find $x$ such that
$$y = 68,000,000$$ (since 68 trillion = 68,000,000 billion)
Set up the equation:
$$68,000,000 = 411.500(1.074)^x$$
Divide both sides by 411.500:
$$\frac{68,000,000}{411.500} = (1.074)^x$$
Simplify:
$$165,230.7 = (1.074)^x$$
Take natural logarithm on both sides:
$$\ln(165,230.7) = x \ln(1.074)$$
Calculate:
$$x = \frac{\ln(165,230.7)}{\ln(1.074)}$$
Using a calculator:
$$\ln(165,230.7) \approx 12.015, \quad \ln(1.074) \approx 0.0713$$
So:
$$x \approx \frac{12.015}{0.0713} = 168.5$$
7. **Convert $x$ to year:**
$$\text{Year} = 1960 + 168.5 = 2128.5$$
So the model predicts total personal income will reach 68 trillion around mid-year 2128.
**Final answers:**
- (a) $$y = 411.500(1.074)^x$$
- (b) The model underestimates the 2018 income.
- (c) The income reaches 68 trillion around the year 2128.
Income Exponential 684783
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