Subjects economics

Insurance Optimization Dee138

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1. **Problem statement:** Lucy and Henry each have 4975 units of wealth. With probability 0.1, they lose 85% of their wealth. They can buy \(\alpha\) units of insurance at cost 0.1 per unit, each paying 1 unit if loss occurs. Lucy's utility is \(u_L(x) = x\), Henry's utility is \(u_H(x) = \sqrt{x}\). We answer parts a) to e). 2. **Part a) Expected value of the loss without insurance:** The loss amount is 85% of 4975: $$\text{Loss} = 0.85 \times 4975 = 4228.75$$ Expected loss: $$E[\text{Loss}] = 0.1 \times 4228.75 + 0.9 \times 0 = 422.875$$ 3. **Part b) Henry's certainty equivalent loss:** Henry's expected utility without insurance is: $$E[u_H] = 0.1 \times \sqrt{4975 - 4228.75} + 0.9 \times \sqrt{4975} = 0.1 \times \sqrt{746.25} + 0.9 \times \sqrt{4975}$$ Calculate: $$\sqrt{746.25} \approx 27.32, \quad \sqrt{4975} \approx 70.52$$ So: $$E[u_H] = 0.1 \times 27.32 + 0.9 \times 70.52 = 2.732 + 63.468 = 66.2$$ Henry's utility if he loses \(x\) for sure is: $$\sqrt{4975 - x} = 66.2$$ Square both sides: $$4975 - x = 66.2^2 = 4381.44$$ Solve for \(x\): $$x = 4975 - 4381.44 = 593.56$$ 4. **Part c) Lucy's utility maximizing \(\alpha\) with insurance cost 0.1:** Lucy’s wealth if loss occurs and she buys \(\alpha\) units: $$W_{loss} = 4975 - 0.85 \times 4975 + \alpha - 0.1 \alpha = 4975 - 4228.75 + 0.9 \alpha = 746.25 + 0.9 \alpha$$ If no loss: $$W_{no\ loss} = 4975 - 0.1 \alpha$$ Expected utility: $$EU_L = 0.1 (746.25 + 0.9 \alpha) + 0.9 (4975 - 0.1 \alpha) = 74.625 + 0.09 \alpha + 4477.5 - 0.09 \alpha = 4552.125$$ Notice \(\alpha\) terms cancel out, so expected utility is constant regardless of \(\alpha\). Since utility is linear, Lucy is indifferent to \(\alpha\) and the largest \(\alpha\) is unbounded. But practically, \(\alpha\) cannot exceed the loss amount 4228.75. So the largest \(\alpha\) maximizing utility is: $$\alpha = 4228.75$$ 5. **Part d) Lucy's utility maximizing \(\alpha\) with insurance cost 0.2:** Now cost per unit is 0.2, so: $$W_{loss} = 746.25 + \alpha - 0.2 \alpha = 746.25 + 0.8 \alpha$$ $$W_{no\ loss} = 4975 - 0.2 \alpha$$ Expected utility: $$EU_L = 0.1 (746.25 + 0.8 \alpha) + 0.9 (4975 - 0.2 \alpha) = 74.625 + 0.08 \alpha + 4477.5 - 0.18 \alpha = 4552.125 - 0.1 \alpha$$ Since \(EU_L\) decreases with \(\alpha\), Lucy maximizes utility by choosing the smallest \(\alpha\), which is 0. 6. **Part e) Henry's utility maximizing \(\alpha\) with insurance cost 0.2:** Henry's expected utility: $$EU_H = 0.1 \sqrt{746.25 + 0.8 \alpha} + 0.9 \sqrt{4975 - 0.2 \alpha}$$ We find \(\alpha\) maximizing \(EU_H\) on \([0, 4228.75]\). Derivative: $$\frac{dEU_H}{d\alpha} = 0.1 \times \frac{0.8}{2 \sqrt{746.25 + 0.8 \alpha}} - 0.9 \times \frac{0.2}{2 \sqrt{4975 - 0.2 \alpha}} = \frac{0.04}{\sqrt{746.25 + 0.8 \alpha}} - \frac{0.09}{\sqrt{4975 - 0.2 \alpha}}$$ Set derivative to zero: $$\frac{0.04}{\sqrt{746.25 + 0.8 \alpha}} = \frac{0.09}{\sqrt{4975 - 0.2 \alpha}}$$ Square both sides: $$\frac{0.0016}{746.25 + 0.8 \alpha} = \frac{0.0081}{4975 - 0.2 \alpha}$$ Cross multiply: $$0.0016 (4975 - 0.2 \alpha) = 0.0081 (746.25 + 0.8 \alpha)$$ Calculate: $$7.96 - 0.00032 \alpha = 6.045 + 0.00648 \alpha$$ Bring terms together: $$7.96 - 6.045 = 0.00648 \alpha + 0.00032 \alpha$$ $$1.915 = 0.0068 \alpha$$ Solve for \(\alpha\): $$\alpha = \frac{1.915}{0.0068} \approx 281.62$$ Check endpoints: $$EU_H(0) = 0.1 \times 27.32 + 0.9 \times 70.52 = 66.2$$ $$EU_H(4228.75) = 0.1 \times \sqrt{746.25 + 0.8 \times 4228.75} + 0.9 \times \sqrt{4975 - 0.2 \times 4228.75} = 0.1 \times \sqrt{746.25 + 3383} + 0.9 \times \sqrt{4975 - 845.75} = 0.1 \times \sqrt{4129.25} + 0.9 \times \sqrt{4129.25} = \sqrt{4129.25} \approx 64.26$$ Since 66.2 > 64.26 and the critical point is a maximum, the maximizing \(\alpha\) is approximately 281.62. **Final answers:** - a) Expected loss = 422.875 - b) Henry's certainty equivalent loss = 593.56 - c) Lucy's optimal \(\alpha\) at cost 0.1 = 4228.75 - d) Lucy's optimal \(\alpha\) at cost 0.2 = 0 - e) Henry's optimal \(\alpha\) at cost 0.2 = 281.62 All answers rounded to three decimals where applicable.