1. **Problem Statement:**
We have demand for 8 quarters and costs for hiring, firing, inventory holding, subcontracting, and overtime.
We need to analyze three production strategies: Chase Demand, Level Production, and Mixed Strategy.
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2. **Given Data:**
- Demand per quarter: $D = [260, 210, 470, 650, 430, 270, 210, 360]$
- Hiring cost per unit: $H_c = 150$
- Firing cost per unit: $F_c = 200$
- Inventory holding cost per unit per quarter: $I_c = 50$
- Subcontracting cost per unit: $S_c = 100$
- Overtime cost per unit: $O_c = 25$
- Regular production rate for mixed strategy: $P_r = 50$
- Overtime allowed: 20% of $P_r$ = $10$ units
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### 1. Pure Strategies
#### a) Chase Demand Strategy
- Production equals demand each quarter: $P_t = D_t$
- Hiring/firing costs calculated from changes in production between quarters.
**Formulas:**
- Change in production: $\Delta P_t = P_t - P_{t-1}$ with $P_0=0$
- Hiring cost if $\Delta P_t > 0$: $H_t = H_c \times \Delta P_t$
- Firing cost if $\Delta P_t < 0$: $F_t = F_c \times |\Delta P_t|$
- Total cost = $\sum (H_t + F_t)$
**Calculations:**
| Quarter | Demand $D_t$ | Production $P_t$ | $\Delta P_t$ | Hiring Cost | Firing Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 260 | 260 | 260 - 0 = 260 | 150*260=39000 | 0 |
| 2 | 210 | 210 | 210 - 260 = -50 | 0 | 200*50=10000 |
| 3 | 470 | 470 | 470 - 210 = 260 | 150*260=39000 | 0 |
| 4 | 650 | 650 | 650 - 470 = 180 | 150*180=27000 | 0 |
| 5 | 430 | 430 | 430 - 650 = -220 | 0 | 200*220=44000 |
| 6 | 270 | 270 | 270 - 430 = -160 | 0 | 200*160=32000 |
| 7 | 210 | 210 | 210 - 270 = -60 | 0 | 200*60=12000 |
| 8 | 360 | 360 | 360 - 210 = 150 | 150*150=22500 | 0 |
**Totals:**
- Hiring cost = 39000 + 39000 + 27000 + 22500 = 127500
- Firing cost = 10000 + 44000 + 32000 + 12000 = 98000
- Total cost = 127500 + 98000 = 225500
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#### b) Level Production Strategy
- Constant production equal to average demand:
$$\bar{D} = \frac{260+210+470+650+430+270+210+360}{8} = \frac{2860}{8} = 357.5 \approx 358$$
- Production $P_t = 358$ units each quarter
- Inventory and shortage calculated as:
$$I_t = I_{t-1} + P_t - D_t$$ with $I_0=0$
- If $I_t < 0$, shortage = $|I_t|$, else inventory = $I_t$
- Inventory holding cost = $I_c \times$ inventory units
- Shortage handled by subcontracting at $S_c$
**Calculations:**
| Quarter | Demand $D_t$ | Production $P_t$ | Inventory Start $I_{t-1}$ | Inventory End $I_t$ | Inventory Cost | Shortage Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 260 | 358 | 0 | $0 + 358 - 260 = 98$ | 50*98=4900 | 0 |
| 2 | 210 | 358 | 98 | $98 + 358 - 210 = 246$ | 50*246=12300 | 0 |
| 3 | 470 | 358 | 246 | $246 + 358 - 470 = 134$ | 50*134=6700 | 0 |
| 4 | 650 | 358 | 134 | $134 + 358 - 650 = -158$ | 0 | 100*158=15800 |
| 5 | 430 | 358 | -158 | $-158 + 358 - 430 = -230$ | 0 | 100*230=23000 |
| 6 | 270 | 358 | -230 | $-230 + 358 - 270 = -142$ | 0 | 100*142=14200 |
| 7 | 210 | 358 | -142 | $-142 + 358 - 210 = 6$ | 50*6=300 | 0 |
| 8 | 360 | 358 | 6 | $6 + 358 - 360 = 4$ | 50*4=200 | 0 |
**Totals:**
- Inventory holding cost = 4900 + 12300 + 6700 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 300 + 200 = 24400
- Shortage cost = 0 + 0 + 0 + 15800 + 23000 + 14200 + 0 + 0 = 53000
- Total cost = 24400 + 53000 = 77400
---
### 2. Mixed Strategy
- Constant regular production $P_r = 50$ units
- Overtime allowed = 10 units
- Total production capacity per quarter = $P_t = 50 + OT_t$ where $0 \leq OT_t \leq 10$
- Demand $D_t$ as given
- Shortage $S_t = \max(0, D_t - P_t)$
- Shortage met by cheaper option between hiring and subcontracting:
- Hiring cost = 150 per unit
- Subcontracting cost = 100 per unit
- Choose subcontracting since 100 < 150
- Overtime cost = $O_c \times OT_t$
**Calculations:**
| Quarter | Demand $D_t$ | Regular Prod 50 | Overtime $OT_t$ | Total Prod $P_t$ | Shortage $S_t$ | Overtime Cost | Shortage Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 260 | 50 | 10 | 60 | 260 - 60 = 200 | 25*10=250 | 100*200=20000 |
| 2 | 210 | 50 | 10 | 60 | 210 - 60 = 150 | 250 | 15000 |
| 3 | 470 | 50 | 10 | 60 | 470 - 60 = 410 | 250 | 41000 |
| 4 | 650 | 50 | 10 | 60 | 650 - 60 = 590 | 250 | 59000 |
| 5 | 430 | 50 | 10 | 60 | 430 - 60 = 370 | 250 | 37000 |
| 6 | 270 | 50 | 10 | 60 | 270 - 60 = 210 | 250 | 21000 |
| 7 | 210 | 50 | 10 | 60 | 210 - 60 = 150 | 250 | 15000 |
| 8 | 360 | 50 | 10 | 60 | 360 - 60 = 300 | 250 | 30000 |
**Totals:**
- Overtime cost = 8 * 250 = 2000
- Shortage cost = 20000 + 15000 + 41000 + 59000 + 37000 + 21000 + 15000 + 30000 = 238000
- Total cost = 2000 + 238000 = 240000
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### 3. Summary Table and Recommendation
| Strategy | Hiring Cost | Firing Cost | Inventory Cost | Shortage/Subcontracting Cost | Overtime Cost | Total Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Demand | 127500 | 98000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 225500 |
| Level Production | 0 | 0 | 24400 | 53000 | 0 | 77400 |
| Mixed Strategy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 238000 | 2000 | 240000 |
**Recommendation:**
The Level Production strategy has the lowest total cost (77400) compared to Chase Demand (225500) and Mixed Strategy (240000).
It balances production and inventory to minimize costs despite some subcontracting.
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This completes the step-by-step solution with formulas, calculations, and cost comparison.
Aggregate Planning 7Bcdc2
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