1. The problem is to find the value of $P(4)$ given the function $P(x) = p(1 - p)^{x-1}$.
2. This function is a geometric probability mass function where $p$ is the probability of success and $x$ is the trial number.
3. To find $P(4)$, substitute $x=4$ into the formula:
$$P(4) = p(1 - p)^{4-1} = p(1 - p)^3$$
4. This expression means the probability of the first success occurring on the 4th trial is $p$ times the probability of failure $(1-p)$ raised to the power of 3.
5. Without a specific value for $p$, this is the simplified expression for $P(4)$.
Final answer:
$$P(4) = p(1 - p)^3$$
Geometric Probability Ace212
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