1. **Problem statement:** Given a Poisson random variable $X$ such that $P[X=2] = \frac{2}{3} P[X=1]$, find $P[X=3]$.
2. **Recall the Poisson probability mass function (pmf):**
$$P[X=k] = \frac{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^k}{k!}$$
where $\lambda$ is the mean (and variance) of the Poisson distribution.
3. **Express the given condition using the pmf:**
$$P[X=2] = \frac{2}{3} P[X=1]$$
Substitute the pmf:
$$\frac{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^2}{2!} = \frac{2}{3} \times \frac{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^1}{1!}$$
4. **Simplify the equation:**
Cancel $e^{-\lambda}$ on both sides:
$$\frac{\lambda^2}{2} = \frac{2}{3} \lambda$$
Multiply both sides by 6 to clear denominators:
$$3 \lambda^2 = 4 \lambda$$
Divide both sides by $\lambda$ (assuming $\lambda > 0$):
$$3 \lambda = 4$$
5. **Solve for $\lambda$:**
$$\lambda = \frac{4}{3}$$
6. **Find $P[X=3]$ using the pmf:**
$$P[X=3] = \frac{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^3}{3!} = \frac{e^{-\frac{4}{3}} \left(\frac{4}{3}\right)^3}{6}$$
7. **Final answer:**
$$P[X=3] = \frac{e^{-\frac{4}{3}} \left(\frac{64}{27}\right)}{6} = \frac{64}{162} e^{-\frac{4}{3}} = \frac{32}{81} e^{-\frac{4}{3}}$$
This is the probability $P[X=3]$ for the given Poisson distribution.
Poisson Probability 785D40
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