1. The problem asks to find the probabilities (A) $P(M \cap S)$ and (B) $P(R)$ using the given probability tree.
2. From the tree, the first split is between $M$ and $R$ with probabilities $0.7$ and $0.3$ respectively.
3. From $M$, the branches split into $S$ and $R$ with probabilities $0.7$ and $0.3$ respectively.
4. From $R$, the branches split into $S$ and $R$ with probabilities $0.5$ and $0.5$ respectively.
5. To find $P(M \cap S)$, multiply the probability of $M$ by the probability of $S$ given $M$:
$$P(M \cap S) = P(M) \times P(S|M) = 0.7 \times 0.7 = 0.49$$
6. To find $P(R)$, consider both ways to get $R$:
- Directly from the first split: $P(R) = 0.3$
- From $M$ branch to $R$: $P(M) \times P(R|M) = 0.7 \times 0.3 = 0.21$
- From $R$ branch to $R$: $P(R) \times P(R|R) = 0.3 \times 0.5 = 0.15$
7. Total $P(R)$ is the sum of all paths ending in $R$:
$$P(R) = 0.3 + 0.21 + 0.15 = 0.66$$
Final answers:
(A) $P(M \cap S) = 0.49$
(B) $P(R) = 0.66$
Probability Tree 83D1B6
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