Subjects probability

Silver Balloon 176A9F

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1. **State the problem:** Colton has a 5% chance of popping a silver balloon each throw. He throws 6 darts. We want to find the probability that he pops at least 1 silver balloon. 2. **Identify the probability model:** This is a binomial probability problem where each dart throw is a trial with two outcomes: silver balloon (success) or not (failure). 3. **Formula:** The probability of at least one success in $n$ trials is $$P(X \geq 1) = 1 - P(X = 0)$$ where $P(X=0)$ is the probability of zero successes. 4. **Calculate $P(X=0)$:** The probability of not popping a silver balloon in one throw is $1 - 0.05 = 0.95$. 5. **Calculate $P(X=0)$ for 6 throws:** $$P(X=0) = 0.95^6$$ 6. **Calculate $P(X \geq 1)$:** $$P(X \geq 1) = 1 - 0.95^6$$ 7. **Evaluate:** $$0.95^6 = 0.7351$$ (rounded) $$P(X \geq 1) = 1 - 0.7351 = 0.2649$$ 8. **Interpretation:** There is approximately a 26.49% chance Colton will pop at least one silver balloon. 9. **Simulation choice:** The best simulation to fairly represent this situation is to use a computer to randomly generate 6 numbers from 1 to 20, where each time the number 1 appears, it represents popping a silver balloon (since 1 out of 20 is 5%). This matches the probability and number of trials exactly. **Final answer:** The computer simulation with 6 random numbers from 1 to 20 is the correct choice.