1. **State the problem:**
We have two urns, each equally likely to be chosen. Urn 1 contains 1 white and 6 red balls, Urn 2 contains 2 white and 5 red balls. A ball is drawn and it is white. We want to find the probability that this white ball came from Urn 2.
2. **Use Bayes' Theorem:**
The probability that the white ball came from Urn 2 given that a white ball was drawn is
$$P(U2|W) = \frac{P(W|U2)P(U2)}{P(W|U1)P(U1) + P(W|U2)P(U2)}$$
3. **Calculate each probability:**
- Probability of choosing Urn 1 or Urn 2: $$P(U1) = P(U2) = \frac{1}{2}$$
- Probability of drawing white from Urn 1: $$P(W|U1) = \frac{1}{7}$$ (1 white out of 7 total)
- Probability of drawing white from Urn 2: $$P(W|U2) = \frac{2}{7}$$ (2 white out of 7 total)
4. **Substitute values into Bayes' formula:**
$$P(U2|W) = \frac{\frac{2}{7} \times \frac{1}{2}}{\frac{1}{7} \times \frac{1}{2} + \frac{2}{7} \times \frac{1}{2}}$$
5. **Simplify numerator and denominator:**
$$P(U2|W) = \frac{\frac{2}{14}}{\frac{1}{14} + \frac{2}{14}} = \frac{\frac{2}{14}}{\frac{3}{14}}$$
6. **Cancel common denominator 14:**
$$P(U2|W) = \frac{\cancel{\frac{2}{14}}}{\cancel{\frac{3}{14}}} = \frac{2}{3}$$
7. **Final answer:**
The probability that the white ball came from Urn 2 is $$\boxed{\frac{2}{3}}$$.
Urn Probability 1A9817
Step-by-step solutions with LaTeX - clean, fast, and student-friendly.