1. **State the problem:**
We want to find the binomial probability $P(X=20)$ where $n=42$ trials, probability of success $p=0.5$, and $X$ is the number of successes.
2. **Binomial probability formula:**
$$P(X=k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k}$$
where $\binom{n}{k} = \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!}$.
3. **Calculate $P(X=20)$:**
$$P(X=20) = \binom{42}{20} (0.5)^{20} (0.5)^{22} = \binom{42}{20} (0.5)^{42}$$
4. **Calculate the combination:**
$$\binom{42}{20} = \frac{42!}{20! \times 22!}$$
Using a calculator or software, $\binom{42}{20} = 269128937220$ approximately.
5. **Calculate the probability:**
$$P(X=20) = 269128937220 \times (0.5)^{42}$$
Since $(0.5)^{42} = \frac{1}{2^{42}} \approx 2.273736754 \times 10^{-13}$,
$$P(X=20) \approx 269128937220 \times 2.273736754 \times 10^{-13} = 0.0612$$
6. **Check if normal approximation is appropriate:**
The normal approximation to the binomial is appropriate if both $np$ and $n(1-p)$ are greater than 5.
Here, $np = 42 \times 0.5 = 21$ and $n(1-p) = 21$, both greater than 5, so normal approximation is valid.
7. **Normal approximation parameters:**
Mean: $$\mu = np = 21$$
Standard deviation: $$\sigma = \sqrt{np(1-p)} = \sqrt{42 \times 0.5 \times 0.5} = \sqrt{10.5} \approx 3.2404$$
8. **Apply continuity correction:**
We approximate $P(X=20)$ by $P(19.5 < X < 20.5)$ in the normal distribution.
9. **Calculate z-scores:**
$$z_1 = \frac{19.5 - 21}{3.2404} = \frac{-1.5}{3.2404} \approx -0.463$$
$$z_2 = \frac{20.5 - 21}{3.2404} = \frac{-0.5}{3.2404} \approx -0.154$$
10. **Find probabilities from standard normal table:**
$$P(z < -0.154) \approx 0.439$$
$$P(z < -0.463) \approx 0.322$$
11. **Calculate approximate probability:**
$$P(19.5 < X < 20.5) = P(z < -0.154) - P(z < -0.463) = 0.439 - 0.322 = 0.117$$
12. **Compare results:**
Exact binomial probability: $0.0612$
Normal approximation: $0.117$
The normal approximation overestimates the probability in this case.
**Final answer:**
$$P(X=20) \approx 0.0612$$
Binomial Probability 94C353
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