1. **State the problem:** We need to find an exponential regression equation of the form $$y = ab^x$$ that best fits the given data points: (2,162), (3,163), (4,146), (5,139), (9,111), (12,92), (16,71).
2. **Formula and explanation:** The exponential regression model is $$y = ab^x$$ where $a$ is the initial value (when $x=0$) and $b$ is the base or growth/decay factor.
3. **Transform the data:** Take the natural logarithm of both sides to linearize:
$$\ln y = \ln a + x \ln b$$
Let $Y = \ln y$, $A = \ln a$, and $B = \ln b$, so the equation becomes:
$$Y = A + Bx$$
This is a linear equation in terms of $x$ and $Y$.
4. **Calculate $Y = \ln y$ for each $y$:**
- $\ln 162 \approx 5.0876$
- $\ln 163 \approx 5.0938$
- $\ln 146 \approx 4.9836$
- $\ln 139 \approx 4.9345$
- $\ln 111 \approx 4.7095$
- $\ln 92 \approx 4.5218$
- $\ln 71 \approx 4.2627$
5. **Find the means:**
$$\bar{x} = \frac{2+3+4+5+9+12+16}{7} = \frac{51}{7} \approx 7.286$$
$$\bar{Y} = \frac{5.0876 + 5.0938 + 4.9836 + 4.9345 + 4.7095 + 4.5218 + 4.2627}{7} \approx 4.7857$$
6. **Calculate slope $B$:**
$$B = \frac{\sum (x_i - \bar{x})(Y_i - \bar{Y})}{\sum (x_i - \bar{x})^2}$$
Calculate numerator:
$$(2-7.286)(5.0876-4.7857) + (3-7.286)(5.0938-4.7857) + \ldots + (16-7.286)(4.2627-4.7857) \approx -8.927$$
Calculate denominator:
$$(2-7.286)^2 + (3-7.286)^2 + \ldots + (16-7.286)^2 \approx 110.857$$
So,
$$B = \frac{-8.927}{110.857} \approx -0.0805$$
7. **Calculate intercept $A$:**
$$A = \bar{Y} - B \bar{x} = 4.7857 - (-0.0805)(7.286) = 4.7857 + 0.5865 = 5.3722$$
8. **Convert back to $a$ and $b$:**
$$a = e^A = e^{5.3722} \approx 215.5$$
$$b = e^B = e^{-0.0805} \approx 0.923$$
9. **Write the exponential regression equation:**
$$y = 215.5 \times 0.923^x$$
10. **Round coefficients to the nearest thousandth:**
$$y = 215.500 \times 0.923^x$$
This equation models the data with exponential decay as $x$ increases.
Exponential Regression Bdaf44
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