1. **State the problem:** We want to find the probability that more than 20 homes sold for above market value out of 120 homes, given that 19% of homes sell above market value.
2. **Identify the distribution:** This is a binomial probability problem where:
- Number of trials $n = 120$
- Probability of success $p = 0.19$
- We want $P(X > 20)$ where $X$ is the number of homes sold above market value.
3. **Use normal approximation to binomial:** Since $n$ is large, approximate $X$ by a normal distribution with:
- Mean $\mu = np = 120 \times 0.19 = 22.8$
- Standard deviation $\sigma = \sqrt{np(1-p)} = \sqrt{120 \times 0.19 \times 0.81} = \sqrt{18.468} \approx 4.296$
4. **Apply continuity correction:** We want $P(X > 20)$, so approximate $P(X > 20.5)$ for continuity correction.
5. **Calculate the z-score:**
$$
z = \frac{20.5 - 22.8}{4.296} = \frac{-2.3}{4.296} \approx -0.535
$$
6. **Find the probability:**
$$
P(X > 20) \approx P(Z > -0.535) = 1 - P(Z \leq -0.535) = 1 - \Phi(-0.535)
$$
Using symmetry of normal distribution:
$$
1 - \Phi(-0.535) = \Phi(0.535)
$$
From standard normal tables or calculator:
$$
\Phi(0.535) \approx 0.704
$$
7. **Final answer:** The probability that more than 20 homes sold above market value is approximately **0.704**.
Home Sale Probability B7C30C
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