Subjects statistics

Poll Interpretation D0716E

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1. **State the problem:** We have a random sample of 1,000 likely voters, with 55% supporting candidate Taylor. The margin of error is 3 percentage points. We want to determine which statement about the population proportion is appropriate. 2. **Formula and explanation:** The margin of error (ME) gives a range around the sample proportion ($\hat{p}$) where the true population proportion ($p$) is likely to lie. This range is: $$\hat{p} \pm ME$$ Here, $\hat{p} = 0.55$ and $ME = 0.03$. 3. **Calculate the confidence interval:** $$0.55 - 0.03 = 0.52$$ $$0.55 + 0.03 = 0.58$$ So, the confidence interval is from 0.52 to 0.58. 4. **Interpretation:** Since the entire confidence interval is above 0.50, this provides evidence that more than half of all likely voters plan to vote for candidate Taylor. 5. **Conclusion:** The appropriate statement is: "The sample proportion minus the margin of error is greater than 0.50, which provides evidence that more than half of all likely voters plan to vote for candidate Taylor." **Final answer:** The second statement is appropriate.