1. **State the problem:** We want to estimate how many applicants in the 2026 DiscoverEU round have postal codes starting with the digit "2". 2. **Analyze total applicants trend:** - 2018-2024 rounds: approximately 1.4 to 1.9 million applicants. - 2026 round: about 1.9 million applicants (from the latest data). 3. **Analyze country distribution:** - Top applicant countries include Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, France, and Türkiye. - Postal codes starting with "2" are common in certain countries or regions. 4. **Assumptions about postal codes starting with "2":** - Postal codes starting with "2" are mostly in countries like France (2xxxx), Spain (2xxxx), and parts of Italy (20xxx for Milan area). - Germany's postal codes start with digits 0-9, but "2" covers northern regions (Hamburg, Bremen). - Poland's postal codes start with digits 0-9; "2" covers eastern-central regions. - Türkiye's postal codes start with digits 0-8; "2" covers some western provinces. 5. **Estimate percentage of applicants with postal codes starting with "2":** - France applicants: 13066 - Spain applicants: 12217 - Italy applicants: 36357 - Germany applicants: 26867 - Poland applicants: 14716 - Türkiye applicants: 18716 6. **Estimate portion of each country’s applicants with postal codes starting with "2":** - France: nearly all postal codes starting with "2" are Corsica (2A, 2B) and some others; roughly 10% of France’s population lives in "2" postal code areas. - Spain: postal codes starting with "2" cover provinces like Ávila, Segovia, Soria; roughly 10% of Spain’s population. - Italy: Milan area (20xxx) is populous; estimate 15% of Italy’s applicants. - Germany: northern regions with "2" postal codes cover about 15% of population. - Poland: eastern-central regions with "2" postal codes cover about 20% of population. - Türkiye: western provinces with "2" postal codes cover about 10% of population. 7. **Calculate estimated applicants with postal codes starting with "2" per country:** - France: $13066 \times 0.10 = 1307$ - Spain: $12217 \times 0.10 = 1222$ - Italy: $36357 \times 0.15 = 5454$ - Germany: $26867 \times 0.15 = 4030$ - Poland: $14716 \times 0.20 = 2943$ - Türkiye: $18716 \times 0.10 = 1872$ 8. **Sum these estimates:** $$1307 + 1222 + 5454 + 4030 + 2943 + 1872 = 16828$$ 9. **Consider other countries:** - Other countries have smaller applicant numbers and likely smaller proportions with postal codes starting with "2". - Estimate an additional 5% of total applicants from other countries with "2" postal codes. - Total applicants 2026: 1,900,000 - Other countries applicants: $1,900,000 - (13066 + 12217 + 36357 + 26867 + 14716 + 18716) = 1,900,000 - 121839 = 1,778,161$ - 5% of 1,778,161 = 88,908 (seems high, so adjust to 1% for reasonableness: 17,781) 10. **Final estimate:** Add 1% of other countries: $16828 + 17781 = 34609$ **Final numerical estimate:** Approximately **34,600** applicants in the 2026 DiscoverEU round have postal codes starting with the digit "2". This estimate is based on reasonable assumptions about postal code distributions and applicant country data.