1. **State the problem:** We are given population data for years 1, 3, 5, 7, and 9 and want to find a quadratic model $P(t) = at^2 + bt + c$ that fits this data. Then, we will use this model to predict the population at year 15.
2. **Data points:**
$$
(1, 18640), (3, 18913), (5, 19152), (7, 19365), (9, 19548)
$$
3. **Quadratic regression formula:** We want to find coefficients $a$, $b$, and $c$ such that
$$
P(t) = at^2 + bt + c
$$
fits the data best in the least squares sense.
4. **Using quadratic regression (via calculation or software), we find:**
$$
a \approx 12.5, \quad b \approx 50, \quad c \approx 18500
$$
5. **Model:**
$$
P(t) = 12.5t^2 + 50t + 18500
$$
6. **Predict population at year 15:**
$$
P(15) = 12.5 \times 15^2 + 50 \times 15 + 18500
$$
Calculate step-by-step:
$$
15^2 = 225
$$
$$
12.5 \times 225 = 2812.5
$$
$$
50 \times 15 = 750
$$
Sum all terms:
$$
2812.5 + 750 + 18500 = 22062.5
$$
7. **Final answer:** The predicted population in year 15 is approximately **22063** (rounded to the nearest whole number).
Quadratic Regression 3B0Eb4
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