1. **State the problem:** We want to find the probability that in 200 tosses of a fair coin, the proportion of heads is between 55% and 65%.
2. **Identify the distribution:** The number of heads in 200 tosses follows a binomial distribution with parameters $n=200$ and $p=0.5$ (since the coin is fair).
3. **Sampling distribution of the sample proportion:** The sample proportion $\hat{p}$ of heads is $\hat{p} = \frac{X}{n}$ where $X$ is the number of heads.
4. **Mean and standard deviation of $\hat{p}$:**
$$\mu_{\hat{p}} = p = 0.5$$
$$\sigma_{\hat{p}} = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.5 \times 0.5}{200}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.25}{200}} = \sqrt{0.00125} \approx 0.03536$$
5. **Convert the problem to a probability about $\hat{p}$:**
We want $P(0.55 \leq \hat{p} \leq 0.65)$.
6. **Standardize using the normal approximation:**
$$Z = \frac{\hat{p} - \mu_{\hat{p}}}{\sigma_{\hat{p}}}$$
Calculate the Z-scores for 0.55 and 0.65:
$$Z_1 = \frac{0.55 - 0.5}{0.03536} = \frac{0.05}{0.03536} \approx 1.414$$
$$Z_2 = \frac{0.65 - 0.5}{0.03536} = \frac{0.15}{0.03536} \approx 4.243$$
7. **Find the probability using the standard normal distribution:**
$$P(0.55 \leq \hat{p} \leq 0.65) = P(1.414 \leq Z \leq 4.243) = \Phi(4.243) - \Phi(1.414)$$
Where $\Phi(z)$ is the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the standard normal.
8. **Look up or calculate values:**
$$\Phi(4.243) \approx 1$$ (very close to 1)
$$\Phi(1.414) \approx 0.9213$$
9. **Calculate final probability:**
$$P = 1 - 0.9213 = 0.0787$$
**Answer:** The probability that between 55% and 65% of the outcomes are heads in 200 tosses of a fair coin is approximately **0.0787** or **7.87%**.
Sampling Proportion 99Edd6
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